2011 Global Retail Development Index™

The A.T. Kearney Global Retail Development Index (GRDI)™ ranks the top 30 emerging countries for retail development and identifies windows of opportunity for global retailers to invest in developing markets. The GRDI is unique because it doesn’t just identify which markets are bigger or richer, but rather which markets are hotter and bursting with opportunity. The 2011 GRDI marks the 10th anniversary of the publication, and in addition to the annual index, an occasion for a 10-year retrospective.

Retail Global Expansion: A Portfolio of Opportunities
The 2011 Global Retail Development Index™

This year’s GRDI reflects the dramatic changes in the global economy and their very different impact on different developing markets—some developing giants kept roaring ahead, some small jewels dodged the bullet, some succumbed to the political upheaval that economic distress brings, others “muscled through” the recession. Today, as leading international retailers are rewarded for their flexibility and long-term outlook in the face of short-term uncertainty, it is time to focus on a portfolio of countries—with different levels of risk, at different stages of maturity and with distince consumer profiles—to balance short- and long-term opportunities.

• South America has jumped to the head of our index this year, based largely on countries’ continued growth through the global meltdown and lack of investment fatigue that has impacted some of the historical chart-toppers
• Asia has dropped in the rankings to make room for South America, even though India and China continue to lead the way out of the global recession to global recovery
• The Middle East and North Africa—although dominating headlines in 2011 with political unrest and demonstrations—still eight of the top 20 countries in the GRDI

[Read Report]

GRDI: A 10-Year Retrospective
The Global Retail Development Index ™: Lessons learned from a decade of retail expansion

The retail landscape in developing markets has experienced explosive growth over the past 10 years. As the population in these countries increased by 11 percent, retail space expanded by 225 percent, retail sales per capita increased almost 100 percent, and Internet access grew more than 400 percent. Developing countries now represent 42 percent of global retail sales.

Our 10-Year Retrospective explores how global retail has grown and changed over the past decade:

• Major shifts in the retail landscape of emerging markets
• Countries and companies that have stood out in an era of globalization
• 7 lessons international retailers have learned as they tapped into developing markets

[Read Report]

A.T. Kearney Global Retail Development Index, 2011

About the Index

Published since 2002, the GRDI helps retailers prioritize their global development strategies by ranking the retail expansion attractiveness of emerging countries based on a set of 25 variables including economic and political risk, retail market attractiveness, retail saturation levels, and modern retailing sales area and sales growth. The GRDI focuses on opportunities for mass merchant and food retailers, which are typically the bellwether for modern retailing concepts in a country.

News Releases

A.T. Kearney’s 2011 Retail Apparel Index Finds China is Most Attractive Emerging Market, Followed by U.A. E and Kuwait
12 June 2011 — atkearney.com
China ranks as the most attractive emerging market for apparel retailers according to a study by global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney. Its first place ranking was driven by the country’s large population and the growing disposable income of the middle class.

Brazil Jumps to First Place in Ranking of Top Developing Economies for Global Retail Expansion
6 June 2011 — atkearney.com
A.T. Kearney today released its 2011 Index of top ranked developing countries for global retail expansion. In the 10th annual Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), Brazil jumped to first place from #5 in last year’s study.

Media Highlights

China, India See Drop in Retail Development Index
11 October 2011 — 2point6billion.com
China and India occupied respective rankings of first and third in last year’s report, but both countries saw a dip in their rankings in this year’s edition. Specifically, China dropped five spots to sixth overall while India slipped by only one spot to rank fourth overall on the list.

Uruguay, Chile Join Brazil as World-Best for Expanding Retailers
27 July — Bloomberg
South America is the next retail frontier as Brazil, Uruguay and Chile top China and India for new expansion opportunities.

Chile behind Uruguay Converge on Brazil for World-Best Expanding Retailers
27 July 2011 — Bloomberg
South America is the next retail frontier as Brazil, Uruguay and Chile top China and India for new expansion opportunities.

Uruguay: Wake Up and Smell the (High End) coffee
21 July 2011 — FT.com
According to a study conducted by A.T. Kearney, Uruguay is one of the top ten most preferred countries for business expansion, mostly because it is seen as a launching point for bigger, neighbouring markets.

Developing Countries Offer Retailers Something They Can't Find Elsewhere: Growth
17 July 2011 — Forbes
Over the 10-year history of A. T. Kearney's Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), an annual research project designed to help global retailers prioritize which countries to enter, the population of developing markets increased 11%, while retail sales per capita has almost doubled, retail space has more than tripled and Internet access grew by nearly 500%.

Women Helping Arab Economies
13 June 2011 — Women’s Wear Daily
Greater opportunities for women to learn and earn are making several Arab economies increasingly attractive markets for fashion retailers.

Best Places for Retail Expansion: South America Surges to Top
9 June 2011 — CNBC
Getting it right in developing markets is a challenge, but it is an essential task for retailers if they want to give their sales growth a boost.

British Retailers 'Missing Out on South American Boom'
7 June 2011 — The Telegraph
British retailers are missing an opportunity by failing to expand into Brazil and other parts of South America experiencing rapid economic growth, according to a new report.

Retail's Hottest Emerging Markets 2011
6 June 2011 — CNBC slideshow
Global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney takes an annual look at which emerging markets are ripe for retail expansion. With the growth of consumer spending sluggish at best in many developed markets, retailers have little choice but to expand their businesses to new markets if they want to compete. See details of the top 10.

U.K. Retailers Missing South American Opportunity, Kearney Says
6 June 2011 — Bloomberg
U.K. retailers Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS), Tesco Plc (TSCO) and J Sainsbury Plc (SBRY) are missing an opportunity by excluding South America from their expansion plans, according to a report by global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney.

Past Reports

2010 Global Retail Development Index™
While the world’s biggest developed economies slowly resume their growth trajectories, developing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East appear poised for remarkable growth.
[Read Article]

2009 Global Retail Development Index™
In a year when consumer spending and retail sales are declining in home markets, global expansion to emerging markets increases in importance as a strategy for growth. Unlike most developed markets, GDP in emerging markets is expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate. The larger, more resilient emerging markets sit atop the 2009 GRDI as they are most likely to lead the economic recover.
[Read Article]

2008 Global Retail Development Index™
Vietnam has ended India's three-year reign as the most attractive emerging market destination for retail investment.
[Read Article]

2007 Global Retail Development Index™
Now in its sixth year, the GRDI identifies windows of opportunity to help retailers make strategic investments in exciting new markets.
[READ ARTICLE]

2006 Global Retail Development Index™
As the pace of globalization quickens so does the race into new markets. But success in this race does not necessarily go to the swiftest. Rather, it goes to companies that make the right moves at the right times. Location is still important, but timing is the name of this retail game.
[READ ARTICLE]

2005 Global Retail Development Index™
The global retail game is changing. While players surged into new markets in 2004, this year they are more focused on rebalancing their positions.
[READ ARTICLE]

2004 Global Retail Development Index™
After a pullback in 2003, global retail is back on track for growth. The most significant growth is taking place in emerging markets where about two-thirds of global retailers interviewed are planning to increase their activities this year.
[READ ARTICLE]